F1IS 4265 - Strategy and Foresight : The challenges of anticipation and decision-making

The course is driven through three main parts which complement and respond to each other. First of all, through a historical and conceptual approach to strategy in its military aspects. The ambition is, after having laid the essential conceptual foundations, with the help of an in-depth understanding of the past, to adopt an explanatory approach to the strategy.

In this context, the strategy will be analyzed in today's world, one where crisis seems to have become normality and normality the exception and where we perceive the strong return of the rhetoric of power combined to new fields of conflict.

Finally, the strategic foresight will focus on the understanding of the notion of futures and anticipation, and the tools that are available to understand these concepts. The building blocks of scenario planning will be presented and used.

Learning Outcomes:

• Ability to draw lessons from History
• Ability to understand main issues of the current and coming strategic context.
• Ability to anticipate coming evolutions and ruptures.
• Ability to understand global trends

Professional Skills:

• Strategic analysis and decision making process
• Crises and international relations understanding
• New domains of strategy and conflicts
• Strategic foresight
• Creativity

Knowledge on military domains, war studies, international relations, strategy and technological and social changes are recommended to fully benefit from the course.

Feed-back will be provided during class. Students will have to send their work beforehand and the professor will give them adequate feedback during part of the class that will be a workshop. Final remarks will be given after the presentation of the case studies.

Students will be evaluated according three grades:

• A group historical strategic case study (30%) during the second, third and fourth classes (part of the course devoted to “Strategic action: historical and conceptual approach”).
• An individual analysis sheet (40%) during the eighth class (part of the course devoted to “Strategy today in the time of crisis”).
• A strategic foresight oral presentation (30%) during the two last classes (part of the course devoted to “Futures and anticipation”).

• In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester
• Reading and Preparation for Class: 2 hours a week / 48 hours a semester
• Research and Preparation for Group Work: 1 hours a week / 36 hours a semester
• Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 1 hours a week / 24 hours a semester