AECO 25A27 - Econometrics and mathematical statistics for opinion polls and policy evaluation

Surveys have long played a prominent role in democracies’ political life. Following the groundbreaking advances of recent economics-Nobel-Prize winners like Esther Duflo, data-driven evaluations of public policies are becoming commonly used to help societies choose how to organize unemployment insurance, the provision of health care and education, etc. This class will give students an introduction to the statistical and econometric theory underlying surveys and counterfactual policy evaluations. Doing so, it hopes to sharpen students’ critical appraisal of the very many surveys and policy evaluations that are to be found in public discourse.

This class uses mathematical notation and proofs: students should be motivated to engage with mathematically formalized material. However, the class remains approachable for many Sciences Po students, see the pre-requisites.

Students who did their high school in France and followed the “spécialité de mathématiques” in Première are well prepared. Sciences Po students who followed the “Niveau avancé” maths class and the “Niveau initié” statistics class in their first year are also well prepared. Exchange students majoring in a quantitative social science are also well prepared.

The class follows the instructor’s lecture notes, available here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mpvm1lP-4sa8I07OmwOwk6_r5OBzmVEG/view?usp=sharing

Students can consult those notes to get an idea of what is taught in the class.

The final grade is based on one quizzes, one midterm exam, and one final exam, all completed in class.