F1IS 4565 - Anticipating Security Risks and Threats: Unpacking the expectations-impact gap

In an era of radical uncertainty, the demand for accurate forecasting is higher than ever due to political, military, environmental, and technological risks. Despite the proliferation of forecasting methods, including AI and expert knowledge, practitioners and institutions struggle to anticipate and address future security issues. Strategic surprises like the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and transatlantic trade wars illustrate this challenge. This course explores why forecasting often falls short and how to improve its integration into decision-making. It combines discussions on the politics of forecasting with practical exercises to help students understand and overcome biases, making it relevant for those interested in security forecasting and emerging research in this field.

Learning Outcomes

Situate, compare, and critically assess forecasting methods currently used by practitioners of international security

Understand why the “effectiveness” of forecasting is not only a question of precision but also of ideational context and organizational politics

Experiment and improve their own forecasting skills by designing a training exercise and discuss its results with the course members and the teacher

Professional Skills

Prediction and forecasting methods used by international security practitioners and institutions

The articulation between academic arguments and participant observation to improve understanding of the concrete dynamics of risk anticipation

Design and conduct of anticipation exercises

There are no special prerequisites, other than an open mind.

Orally after the group assignments, written feedback on the individual assignments

1 group assignment: oral presentation 20%

1 group assignment: elaboration, conduct and analysis of an in-class anticipation exercise: 50%

1 individual assignment: literature review essay on the question “What is the best way of anticipating future security risks and threats?”: 20%

Oral participation in class, based on the core readings 10%

In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester

Online learning activities: xx hours a week / xx hours a semester

Reading and Preparation for Class: 4 hours a week / 48 hours a semester

Research and Preparation for Group Work: 3 hours a week / 36 hours a semester

Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 3 hours a week / 36 hours a semester