OAGE 2055 - Political Economy of the Middle East: Financial Pressures, Economic Transitions and Reforms

The primary objective of this course is to equip participants with advanced analytical tools and concepts of political economy for the examination of the rapidly evolving Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This course will explore a diverse array of topics, focusing particularly on the fundamental mechanisms of capital flows within the context of ongoing transformations in energy and demographic dynamics in the region.

Emphasis will be placed on understanding the buildup of financial pressures and their repercussions for economic and social contracts across various areas within the region. The course aims to assess the implications of these pressures for existing economic and political structures, as well as to evaluate the necessary economic and financial reforms, considering their feasibility within the broader global economic landscape.

Current events will be integrated into the discussion, including various instances of social and economic crises occurring in the MENA region. Each session will draw upon specific case studies as well as broader conceptual readings addressing critical themes such as the "resource curse" debate, changes in energy dynamics, and their effect on political economy models. Additional topics will include state-business relations, governmental policies, budget management, and currency devaluations in the different countries of the region.

While anchored in contemporary case studies from the MENA region, the course will also develop analytical skills applicable to various global contexts

There are several sources you should consult regularly to stay abreast of current economic developments in the MENA region among them:

• Our World In Data : https://ourworldindata.org
• World Bank Global Data : https://data.worldbank.org
• IMF MENA Regional Economic Outlooks: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/MECA/Issues/2024/10/24/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-central-asia-october-2024
• FAO : https://www.fao.org/home/en/
• ILO: https://www.ilo.org
• Carnegie Endowment Malcom Kerr Center MENA : https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east?lang=en
• Crisis Group MENA: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa
• Middle East Institute : https://www.mei.edu
• The GIGA Institute Hamburg: https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en
• The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) : MENA https://www.kas.de/en/web/europaeische-und-internationale-zusammenarbeit/middle-east-and-north-africa
• Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung North Africa Office : https://rosaluxna.org
• The Bruegel Institute : https://www.bruegel.org/publications
• The Noria Research Institute: MENA : https://noria-research.com/mena/
• The Tahrir Insitute for Middle East Policy : https://timep.org/taxotheme/development-economy/
• Global Energy Monitor: https://globalenergymonitor.org
• International Energy Agency, IEA https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-sets
• OPEC : https://www.opec.org
• Global Carbon Project: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org
• Aqueduct: World Resources Institute https://www.wri.org/aqueduct
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI : https://www.sipri.org
• https://www.jadaliyya.com as well as the Carnegie Middle East Center on https://carnegie-mec.org

As the semester progresses, students will familiarize themselves with the use of data bases from international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank, UNCTAD, IEA, FAO, etc. There is no set textbook for the course and many sources will be available online. Consider however, reading extensively the “Political Economy of the Middle East” by Richards/Waterbury/Cammet/Diwan (2015 edition) as well as the Introduction chapter of “Business Politics in the Middle East” by Hertog and Luciani. While doing your readings, try to think through the questions given at the end of each session's reading list. You're not expected to have ready answers to them, but you’ll be expected to be able to discuss them in an informed way. Note that the topics will get concrete and empirical very quickly during the semester.

Learning Outcomes:

• Understanding the mechanisms of budgetary and subsidies policies in the MENA region
• Understanding of the financial mechanisms and of the Energy and Water equations of the MENA region. Learn how to assess the impacts of Climate change and Energy transition on the short and long-term economies of the MENA region.
• Understand the specificities of the banking sector balance sheets and assess the investment and cash flow structures of the Sovereign Wealth funds in the MENA region.

Professional Skills :

• Statistical Analysis
• Balance sheet analysis
• Coordination and Ideas Pitching.

Basic understanding of economics, statistics and data analysis. Interest in matters of finance business and political economy

The seminar will consist of lecture of 45 to 60 minutes and one or two student presentations lasting no more than 10minutes followed by a debate session of about 15 minutes each.

The grading of the course will be based on the presentations given in class for 30% of the grade, a 3000 words research paper that will be due at the end of the semester for 50% of the grade for which students are expected to develop the research question in consultation with the professor, and the general participation in the class discussions and attendance for 20% of the grade.

Apart from academic literature, students will read reports from international financial institutions, central banks and private banks, NGOs, and consultancies. Students are expected to read on average at least 100 pages a week and the debates arguments will need to refer to the texts on the syllabus.