KEMI 2EN20 - From Modeling & Scenario-Planning to Strategy & Decision-Making

We have shifted into the Anthropocene, where societies are facing escalating biophysical risks, geopolitical turbulence and societal transformations. As planetary limits get overshot, uncertainty rises about what the future might look like by the mid of the century.

While the future is unknown by nature, it can be methodologically explored in its plurality and deliberately designed to guide strategies and decisions today. Under such ecological conditions, modeling and scenario-planning can provide policy and decision makers - both private and public - with the tools, frameworks and data to facilitate sensemaking around complex and coupled environmental issues (energy, climate, resources, biodiversity, soils, …) at different scales (global, national, sectoral, territorial, organizational).

This course provides both an academic-led and practice-oriented overview of scenario-planning and foresight approaches, methods and tools to explore possible and alternative futures facing planetary limits. It aims at equipping students with a step-by-step guide to learn how to leverage future-making as a strategic capability for any organization. Through real-world case studies and examples from companies and industries, governments, municipalities and more, students will have the opportunity to understand how scenarios about the future can drive strategic decisions towards resilience.

Prerequisite:

➤ While this course has no prerequisites on scenario-planning or foresight, students will benefit from background knowledge related to sustainability / environmental sciences / Anthropocene era (climate, energy, resources, biodiversity, soils, etc.), corporate strategy and management, geopolitics, and/or international relations/affairs.

➤ Curiosity to delve into both anticipatory and systems thinking to tackle complex and entangled issues related to uncertain and turbulent possible futures.

➤ Strong analytical and critical thinking skills to be able to make sense from policy frameworks, industrial case studies and corporate practices from multiple perspectives.

➤ Pre-session readings to explore key concepts, methods and tools before discussing them in class.

➤ Introductive presentations in each session based on case studies (regional, sector, corporate, international organizations) and on recent academic research.

➤ Interactive sessions: small group work that addresses the notions examined during the session and discussions on assigned pre-readings and course themes.

➤ Potential guest speakers (public or private sector practitioners).

IA use for students in the course

➤ For individual and group assignments, IA is authorized in the course but should carefully be used,

➤ Students should detail in their deliverables the use they did of IA (which one, what for in details),

➤ Students must limit their use of AI: generating ideas and insights as well as framing analysis and arguments must remain their own prerogative and responsibility.

➤ 20% for overall engagement and participation in the course. All students are expected to carefully prepare pre-readings before each session and to actively take part in the course.

➤ 50% on group work. Students will work in small teams to develop scenarios around environmental / ecological issues on a case study. The project requires applying course concepts and frameworks to design a set 2 to 3 contrasted scenarios that envision possible futures under ecological pressures (with also geopolitical / societal / technological dimensions) and apply it to a case study (industrial, corporate or territorial). Scenarios and key learnings from scenario analysis will be presented during the last session simulating a decision-makers briefing meeting. Assessment focuses on analytical depth, teamwork, and practical applicability.

➤ 30% on an individual assignment. Individual short essay on topic of choice (provided by instructors during the first session) to critically reflect on key concepts, frameworks, methods and tools explored and discussed in class and demonstrate practical understanding and strategic insight. Drawing on a selected literature review, students will address the typical following questions: in what context, with what objectives, resources, and type of organization is this theme relevant — and conversely, when would it not be recommended. Students may consider the strengths and limitations of the underlying approach or method and recommendations for foresight practitioners. Assessment emphasizes critical thinking, integration of course concepts, and originality of insight.

Workload:

➤ The course includes 6 lessons of 2 hours each, plus around 2 to 3 hours of homework per week for pre-readings, essay preparation and writing, and group work assignments.

➤ The final presentation may require additional group work, bringing the total workload to approx. 25–30 hours.