DAFF 25A75 - Strategic issues in the Sahel region

Located between the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahel region is at the crossroads of many strategic issues. As a breeding ground for various security threats (socioeconomic difficulties, cross-border trafficking, ethnic tensions, etc.) the Sahel has also been facing a high terrorist threat. Despite strong military pressure by international and regional forces between 2012 and 2022 (MINUSMA, G5 Sahel, France), terrorist groups have managed to remain resilient over the years, to retain freedom of movement and to exert strong local influence on populations, while expanding in the region. States have been unable to offer suitable security solutions as most of them do not fully control their vast territories due to poor governance and local armed forces with limited operational capacities. Moreover, the multiplication of military coups between 2020 and 2023 has been symptomatic of local states’ structural weaknesses as well as of the emergence of a new generation era, characterized by a growing rejection of traditional elites and their political models. Finally, the lack of political will of some state actors and the ambivalent game of others have also contributed to jeopardize the region’s stability.

But the Sahel is also facing major social transformations due to rapid demographic growth (population expected to double between 2010 and 2030), fast urbanization and climate change. These transformations could lead to new promising socioeconomic prospects but also to rising instability (growing competition for access to resources, intercommunity tensions, rise of religious extremist views). In this context, as France and some European partners recalibrate their military and political engagement following the end of operations in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Sahelian states are increasingly asserting new strategic postures, including through the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Meanwhile, other external actors — including Russia, Gulf countries, China and Türkiye — have consolidated their presence in this highly strategic region, through military cooperation, political partnerships, disinformation campaigns and economic influence. The role of private military companies (PMC) and non-state actors in shaping the region’s security dynamics has also become increasingly prominent.

As they share many deep challenges, Sahelian states will have to overcome their differences, regain their populations’ trust and implement structural regional measures to maintain stability in the region.

The purpose of this class will be:

• to analyze all these phenomena and thus to introduce students to a region whose strategic importance is expected to keep growing in the next decades;
• to offer an introduction to an often-misunderstood region, whose issues and prospects go beyond war, coups and poverty, and whose internal developments impact many other actors (neighboring areas, foreign powers, international organizations).

In a region where the military solution has often been (over)used in recent years, we will review more thoroughly the underlying roots of instability in the Sahel. We will see that instability in the region is a multifaceted phenomenon.

None

Weekly press reviews

In-class test (midterm)

Final paper