OAGR 2125 - (Geo)Political Risk Analysis

***UPDATED for 2025/26***

The objective of the course is to explore ways in which (geo)political risk can be analyzed and managed in a business-relevant, objective, and forward-looking manner. The course is structured to provide participants with a theoretical understanding of (geo)political risk, but also with analytical tools to identify, trace and measure political trends that can affect business and investment interests. We will examine (geo)political risk in both emerging markets and developed economies and cover specific sources of risk for businesses such as political polarization, expropriation, or conflict. Practitioners will join to discuss the different use cases for (geo)political risk analysis in financial markets, corporates and the public sector.

The course will rely heavily on case studies ranging from transnational to local examples. Simulations covering current political events will also be used in order to encourage a hands-on approach by participants and help them design strategies to manage and mitigate (geo)political risk.

LEARNING OUTCOMES

• Assess political developments through the lens of their business-relevant implications
• Apply forecasting and scenario planning techniques to real-word political problems
• Differentiate between financial and corporate audiences and their different exposures to politics
• Understand the impact of geopolitical change on the nature of doing business in the 21st century

PROFESSIONAL SKILLS

• Presenting findings to policy-dependent but often primarily market-minded audiences
• Writing/structuring concise, forward-looking and business relevant pieces of political analysis
• Balancing the time pressure of event-driven coverage against quality and succinctness

Basic knowledge of macroeconomics/international political economy would be useful.

Feedback will be provided immediately after the end of the online discussion and within a week of the first political risk report. It also will form part of the group simulation via Feedback will be provided within a week of both the first and the second political risk report. It will also form part of the group simulation via the Q&A session with the instructors. A summary session (What have learned, session 10) and a final round of feedback at the end of the final session.

30%: First political risk report – Due by session 6

40%: Second political risk report – To be written in session 9

20%: Group simulation – In sessions 11 and 12

10%: Active participation – Throughout the course

• In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester
• Online learning activities: 4 hours a semester
• Reading and Preparation for Class: 5 hours a week / 60 hours a semester
• Research and Preparation for Group Work: 12 hours a semester
• Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 50 hours a semester