OAIN 2075 - Warning Failure and Surprise Attack

***UPDATED for 2025/26***

This course offers students the opportunity to consider an important aspect of the study of intelligence: surprise attack. This is one of the most widely considered aspects in the academic study of intelligence and an area where valuable lessons can be learnt. The course will comprise 6 sessions, each of which will include lecture, seminar and group work elements. The course begins with a session on the relationship between the intelligence and policy communities, and then proceeds to discuss a variety of issues, including generic issues to do with warning failure surprise attack. The course also includes sessions related to the converse of this - focusing on intelligence success, for instance – and throughout will include both historical and contemporary examples.

LEARNING OUTCOMES

• An appreciation of the way in which intelligence plays a role in governmental affairs
• A critical engagement with the methodological issues associated with the study of intelligence, within the wider context of governmental decision-making
• An ability to engage critically with the literature on the subject, and to undertake primary, independent research

PROFESSIONAL SKILLS

• Independent research
• Critical thinking
• Applied history
• Teamworking and leadership
• Presentation skills

N/A

Feedback and feed-forward will be a consistent element of this course. The classes will by hybrid lecture and discussions, with consistent interactivity and feedback. The mid-term essay will be an opportunity to provide direct feedback that will support students in preparing for their second piece of assessed work.

Students will be assessed by

• One, individual, mid-term essay
• One, group project, generating a report on a case study of their chosing
• Mid-term essay is 50% of mark
• Final written group project is 50% of mark

• In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester
• Online learning activities:
• Reading and Preparation for Class: 60 hours a semester
• Research and Preparation for Group Work: 40 hours a semester
• Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 26 hours a semester