The main goal will be to understand how historical perspectives can contribute to a better understanding of the interplay between the financial system and the macroeconomy.
The course will focus on macroeconomic and financial crises, the evolution of financial intermediation and business cycles, the history and changing role of central banks, long-run trends in housing and equity markets, as well as the evolution and drivers of long-term income and wealth inequalities.
Public and private debt in the long-run :
- Eichengreen, Barry Asmaa El-Ganainy, Rui Esteves and Kris James Mitchener. 2019. Public Debt Through the Ages, NBER Working Paper.
- Meyer, Josefin and Reinhart, Carmen and Trebesch, Christoph. 2019. Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo, CESifo Working Paper No. 7506.
- Bartscher, Alina, Moritz Kuhn and Moritz Schularick. 2020. Modigliani Meets Minsky: Household Debt in America, 1950-2019, CEPR Working Paper.
- Jordà, Oscar Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2015. The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles, Economic Policy.
Housing markets :
- Amaral, Francisco, Martin Dohmen, Sebastian Kohl and Moritz Schularick, Superstar Returns, Working Paper, 2021.
- Gyourko, Joseph, Christopher Mayer, and Todd Sinai. 2013. Superstar Cities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5 (4): 167-99.
- Katharina Knoll, Moritz Schularick, and Thomas Steger. 2017. No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, American Economic Review.
Equity markets:
- Kuvshinov, Dmitry, and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2020. The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run, Journal of Financial Economics.
- Rajan, Raghuram G., and Luigi Zingales. 2003. The Great Reversals: the Politics of Financial.
- Development in the Twentieth Century. Journal of Financial Economics 69(1): 5–50.
Banking:
- Grossman, Richard. 2010. Unsettled Account: The Evolution of Banking in the Industrialized World since 1800, Princeton UP.
- Jordà, Oscar, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor. 2021. Bank Capital Redux, Review of Economic Studies.
- Kuvshinov, Dmitry, Björn Richter and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2021. The Shifts and the Shocks, Working Paper.
- Baron, Matthew, Moritz Schularick, and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2021. Bank Concentration and Financial Stability since 1870, Working Paper.
Lending booms:
- Schularick, Moritz and Alan M. Taylor. 2012. Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008, American Economic Review.
- Baron, Matthew and Wei Xiong. 2017.Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jakob Ahm Sørensen. 2020. Predictable Financial Crises, Working Paper.
- Mian, Atif, Amir Sufi and Emil Verner. 2017. Household Debt and Business Cycles World Wide, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Crises, panics, and their aftermath:
- Baron, Matthew, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong. 2021. Banking Crises Without Panics. Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(1): 51–113.
- Funke, Manuel, Moritz Schularick and Christoph Trebesch. 2015. Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014, European Economic Review.
- Jordà, Oscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2013. When Credit Bites Back, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.
Central banks:
- Ferguson, Niall, Martin Kornejew, Paul Schmelzing and Moritz Schularick, 2014. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Macroeconomy, Working Paper, 2021.
- Schularick, Moritz and Alan M. Taylor. 2012. Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008, American Economic Review.
Asset prices:
- Jorda, Oscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2020. The Total Risk Premium Puzzle. Working Paper.
- Jorda, Oscar, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015. Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- Kuvshinov, Dmitry, and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2020. The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence. CEPR Discussion Paper 14468.
Bubbles:
- Brunnermeier, Markus, and Isabel Schnabel. 2016. Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives”. Central Banks at a Crossroads: What Can We Learn from History? Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
- Jordà, Oscar Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2015. Leveraged Bubbles, Journal of Monetary Economics.
Saving and wealth inequality:
- Bauluz, Luis, Flip Novokmet and Moritz Schularick. 2020. The Anatomy of the Global Savings Glut, Working Paper.
- Kuhn, Moritz, Moritz Schularick, and Ulrike I. Steins. 2020. Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949–2016, Journal of Political Economy.
- Mian, Atif, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi, The Savings Glut of the Rich, Working Paper, 2021.
- Piketty, Thomas and Gabriel Zucman. 2014. Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700-2000, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2014.
Moritz SCHULARICK,Paul BOUSCASSE
Séminaire
English
This course is a research-level introduction to modern economic and financial history.
A good command of quantitative empirical methods is a prerequisite