OAGR 2125 - (Geo)Political Risk Analysis

***UPDATED for 2024/25***

The objective of the course is to explore ways in which (geo)political risk can be analyzed and managed in a business-relevant, objective, and forward-looking manner. The course is structured to provide participants with a theoretical understanding of (geo)political risk, but also with analytical tools to identify, trace and measure political trends that can affect business and investment interests. We will examine (geo)political risk in both emerging markets and developed economies and cover specific sources of risk for businesses such as political polarization, expropriation, or conflict. Practitioners will join to discuss the different use cases for (geo)political risk analysis in financial markets, corporates and the public sector.

The course will rely heavily on case studies ranging from transnational to local examples. Simulations covering current political events will also be used in order to encourage a hands-on approach by participants and help them design strategies to manage and mitigate (geo)political risk

Learning Outcomes

1. Assess political developments through the lens of their business-relevant implications

2. Apply forecasting and scenario planning techniques to real-word political problems

3. Differentiate between financial and corporate audiences and their different exposures to politics

4. Understand the impact of geopolitical change on the nature of doing business in the 21st century

Professional Skills

1. Presenting findings to policy-dependent but often primarily market-minded audiences

2. Writing concise, forward-looking and business relevant pieces of political analysis

3. Balancing the time pressure of event-driven coverage against quality and succinctness

Carsten NICKEL,Antonio BARROSO VILLAESCUSA
Séminaire
English
• In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester

• Online learning activities: 4 hours a semester

• Reading and Preparation for Class: 5 hours a week / 60 hours a semester

• Research and Preparation for Group Work: 12 hours a semester

• Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 50 hours a semester

Basic knowledge of macroeconomics would be useful.

Spring 2024-2025
• 10%: Short written assignment – Fifth session

• 30%: First political risk report – Eighth session

• 20%: Group simulation – Eleventh and twelfth sessions

• 40%: Final political risk report – To be delivered after the course

Feedback will be provided immediately after the end of the online discussion and within a week of the first political risk report. It also will form part of the group simulation via the Q&A session with the instructors. Feedback on the final political risk report will be provided at the end of the required period.

Provided in the course outline