DECO 25A29 - Economic Outlook Assessment: Methods, Tools and Debates for Economists & Policy Makers

Little theory, but facts, data, calculations and practical know-how. Economists are tasked with explaining how countries perform, and policy makers (central banks, international institutions, governments) with taking actions. The aim of this course is to train economists to critical thinking: how to find relevant and exhaustive data? How to compute and analyse them? How to propose an objective assessment and an appropriate policy? We will decrypt main statistical sources used by economists & policy makers to forge their convictions. Surveys, GDP, inflation, unemployment, ‘imbalances', ‘leading' indicators: how are they built, what do they mean? Everyone, as made autonomous by directly manipulating data, can then read articles on current macro issues (e.g. in The Economist or Financial Times) with an informed perspective and form their own view.
Sophie GUILLOUX-NEFUSSI,Olivier VIGNA
Séminaire
English
Macroeconomics. Excel-like software will be used for simple calculations and case studies.
Spring 2024-2025
Olivier Vigna: Take-Home Exam: 25% / On-site exam: 25% Sophie Guilloux: In-class exercises: 10% / On-site exam: 40%
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Policy pivots, rising threats, October 2024.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024
OECD, Economic Outlook, December 4, 2024
Bank of International Settlements, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2024: forthcoming.