OAIN 2075 - Warning Failure and Surprise Attack

***UPDATED for 2024/25***

This course offers students the opportunity to consider an important aspect of the study of intelligence: surprise attack. This is one of the most widely considered aspects in the academic study of intelligence and an area where valuable lessons can be learnt. The course will comprise 6 sessions, each of which will include lecture, seminar and group work elements. The course begins with a session on the relationship between the intelligence and policy communities, and then proceeds to discuss a variety of issues, including generic issues to do with warning failure surprise attack. The course also includes sessions related to the converse of this - focusing on intelligence success, for instance – and throughout will include both historical and contemporary examples.

Learning Outcomes

1. An appreciation of the way in which intelligence plays a role in governmental affairs.

2. A critical engagement with the methodological issues associated with the study of intelligence, within the wider context of governmental decision-making. 3. An ability to engage critically with the literature on the subject, and to undertake primary, independent research.

Professional Skills

Students will be able to take the insights learned about the relationship between the intelligence community and government to potential teaching or lecturing posts. This module could also service employment in government and non-governmental roles relating to security.

Michael GOODMAN,Huw DYLAN
Séminaire
English
- In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester

- Reading and Preparation for Class: 10 hours a week / 60 hours a semester

- Research and Preparation for Group Work: hours a week / 40 hours a semester

- Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 26 hours a semester

None
Spring 2024-2025
Mid-term essay (50% of mark)

Final written group project (50% of mark)

Six modules, each building on the previous sessions. Each module is 2+2 hours. Each module consists of a formal illustrated lecture followed by a discussion period and a group exercise. Written exercises will test comprehension of key learning points.

1. Betts, Richard K, "Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable." World Politics 31, no. 2 (Oct. 1978): 61-89
2. Jensen, Mark A. "Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do About Them?" Intelligence and National Security 27, no. 2 (Apr. 2012): 261-282
3. Dahl, E. J., Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond (Georgetown University Press,