F1IS 4265 - Strategy and Foresight : The challenges of anticipation and decision-making

The course is driven through three main parts which complement and respond to each other. First of all, through a historical and conceptual approach to strategy in its military aspects. The ambition is, after having laid the essential conceptual foundations, with the help of an in-depth understanding of the past, to adopt an explanatory approach to the strategy.
In this context, the strategy will be analyzed in today's world, one where crisis seems to have become normality and normality the exception and where we perceive the strong return of the rhetoric of power combined to new fields of conflict.
Finally, the strategic foresight will focus on the understanding of the notion of futures and anticipation, and the tools that are available to understand these concepts. The building blocks of scenario planning will be presented and used.

Learning Outcomes:
1. Ability to draw lessons from History
2. Ability to understand main issues of the current and coming strategic context.
3. Ability to anticipate coming evolutions and ruptures.
4. Ability to understand global trends

Professional Skills:
1. Strategic analysis and decision making process
2. Crises and international relations understanding
3. New domains of strategy and conflicts
4. Strategic foresight
5. Creativity

Nicolas MINVIELLE,Bastian DUFILHOL,Christophe GUÉ
Séminaire
English
- In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester
- Reading and Preparation for Class: 2 hours a week / 48 hours a semester
- Research and Preparation for Group Work: 1 hours a week / 36 hours a semester
- Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 1 hours a week / 24 hours a semester
Knowledge on military domains, war studies, international relations, strategy and technological and social changes are recommended to fully benefit from the course.
Autumn 2024-2025
Students will be evaluated according three grades:
- An individual oral presentation regarding an historical strategic case study (30%) at the half of the second month;
- an individual analysis sheet (30%) at the end of the forth month;
- a strategic foresight group case study (40%) during the two last classes.
Feed-back will be provided during class. Students will have to send their work beforehand and the professor will give them adequate feedback during part of the class that will be a workshop. Final remarks will be given after the presentation of the case studies.
General Beaufre A., 1965, An introduction to strategy, F.A. Praeger.
Sir Liddell-Hart B., 1991, Strategy, Meridian (priority to reading chapter XIX : The theory of strategy
Minvielle N. Wathelet O. Lauquin M. Audinet P., 2020, Making Tomorrow, Hold Up Editions.
Van der Heijden K. (2005) The art of stratégie conversation, Wiley.
Muraise E., 2008, Introduction à l'histoire militaire, Lavauzelle.