OAGR 2125 - (Geo)Political Risk Analysis

***UPDATED FOR 2022/23***

The objective of the course is to explore ways in which (geo)political risk can be analyzed and managed in a business-relevant, objective, and forward-looking manner. The course is structured to provide participants with a theoretical understanding of (geo)political risk, but also with analytical tools to identify, trace and measure political trends that can affect business and investment interests. We will examine (geo)political risk in both emerging markets and developed economies and cover specific sources of risk for businesses such as political polarization, expropriation, or conflict.

The course will rely heavily on case studies ranging from transnational to local examples. Simulations covering current political events will also be used in order to encourage a hands-on approach by participants and help them design strategies to manage and mitigate (geo)political risk

Learning Outcomes

1. Assess political developments through the lens of their business-relevant implications.

2. Apply forecasting and scenario planning techniques to real-word political problems.

4. Differentiate between financial and corporate audiences and their different exposures to politics.

5. Understand the impact of geopolitical change on the nature of doing business in the 21st century.

Professional Skills

1. Presenting findings to policy-dependent but often primarily market-minded audiences

2. Writing concise, forward-looking and business relevant pieces of political analysis

3. Balancing the time pressure of event-driven coverage against quality and succinctness

Antonio BARROSO VILLAESCUSA,Carsten NICKEL
Séminaire
English
- In Class Presence: 2 hours a week / 24 hours a semester

- Online learning activities: 4 hours a semester

- Reading and Preparation for Class: 5 hours a week / 60 hours a semester

- Research and Preparation for Group Work: 12 hours a semester

- Research and Writing for Individual Assessments: 50 hours a semester

Basic knowledge of macroeconomics would be useful.

Spring 2022-2023
10%: Participation in an online discussion forum – Third session

30%: Political risk report – Seventh session

20%: Group simulation – Tenth and eleventh sessions

40%: Take home final paper discussing one of the key topics of the course (to be chosen from a list of three issues) – To be delivered after the course

Feedback will be provided immediately after the end of the online discussion and within a week of the report. It also will form part of the group simulation via the Q&A session with the instructors. Feedback on the final paper will be provided at the end of the required period.

Provided in the course outline