OAGR 2065 - Handling Political Risks-Averting Political Damage:Complexity and Insecurity in Foreign Policy Pract

Foreign policy analysis is a well-established means of cataloguing, assessing and, potentially, developing foreign policy. At the same time, the different theoretical approaches offer limited grasp when it comes to a central concept of political practice, which is the handling of political risk. Handling risk and averting damage is a key motive and challenge in practitioners' perspectives on foreign policy, their practical approaches rooted in diplomatic training and experience.

Other disciplines have developed specific instruments to structure their approach to risk. Risk management is a method originating in business studies, developing a tool box to describe and handle complex surroundings and address insecurity. Such structural approaches can help to more fully grasp and consciously organise political analysis, and, in doing so, may strengthen political decision-making in the face of risks.

Furthermore, applying classical tools of political analysis in academic practice can have substantial restrictions because of an underlying information gap: foreign policy analysts usually are not immediate foreign policy actors. They rely largely on documentation to base their analysis on, be it official documents released at a later date or journalistic publications, as the actors themselves are usually bound by professional secrecy regulations.

Immediate actors however, politicians and diplomats, will eventually find themselves in situations the specific details of which are key to their motivation to take a certain approach or decision. These very details however may never be accessible to the public nor to external policy analysts for their ex post assessment of political decision making - either because key aspects are not documented or not even documentable. Official documentation may eventually take a long time until it may be published, and this is specifically the case in security-related foreign policy contexts.

This course seeks to unite both perspectives – training students in broadening and sharpening their analytical skills and tools, and allowing them to test their skills by analysing most recent events on the basis of the available documentation (e.g. journalistic, parliamentarian) and through exchanging with practitioners. At the same time, they are encouraged to test the validity and borders of traditional approaches, and finally, look at innovative approaches governments take to further develop their approach to policy planning and decision making in the face of risks.

Learning Outcomes

  - Students will take a conscious approach to analytical assessment versus normative reflection

- Students will strengthen their use of analytical tools

- Students will develop a deepened understanding of the specific perspectives of different types of foreign policy actors on concepts of risk and insecurity

- Students will develop a comprehensive perspective on a range of aspects governing political risk management in practice

- Students will train to develop and apply structured assessment approaches to a broad range of current foreign policy matters

- Students will gain insights on practical challenges in foreign policy practice from a diverse range of foreign policy practitioners.

Professional Skills

- Students will be enabled to identify weaknesses and potential risks in a range of political contexts

- Students will have developed a more concrete idea of potential roles in foreign political processes and structures

- Students will have trained their awareness of potential biases connected to their personal perspective and position in a political structure

- Students will have learned how to develop mitigation strategies for a broad range of risks

- Students will have learned to avoid typical mistakes and react flexibly through the exchange with practitioners

Katharina BONNENFANT
Séminaire
English
- Course: 2 hours per week – 24 hours of courses

- Readings and Preparation : 3,5 hours per week – 42 hours

- Group work preparation/preparing discussions of other students' group presentations : 3,5 hours per week – 42 hours

- Individual work preparation : 3,5 hours per week – 42 hours

None
Autumn 2022-2023
The course will be introduced over 2 to 3 sessions. Case studies will be analyzed starting from session 4 and until session 10 (7 sessions). All cases will be briefly presented during the introductory sessions so that students choose their case studies by end of session 2 or 3 at latest.

- One oral presentation on a case study of choice (group exercise – 3 to 4 students per group, depending on the number of students): starting from session 4 and until session 10 – 40%

- Students will be using both material suggested by Professor and add additional references, the choice of material being part of the exercise.

- Written paper on a different case study of choice, format to be submitted at the latest on session 12: 8 pages on a topic of students' own choice (no prescribed list of topics). The topic must not be the same as the case study. – 40%

- Participation in class – 10%

ON-GOING, IN EACH CLASS, IN BETWEEN EACH CLASS

- Max Weber, (2015). Weber's Rationalism and Modern Society, tr. and ed. Tony Waters and Dagmar Waters (New York: Palgrave Macmillan); as "Poltics as Vocation" (Politik als Beruf)
- Boettcher III, W. A. (2005). Presidential Risk Behavior in Foreign Policy : Prudence or Peril?. Palgrave Macmillan.
- Trenta, L. (2016). Risk and presidential decision-making: the emergence of foreign policy crises. Routledge.
- Vis, B. & Kuijpers, D. (2018). Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues, advancements, and ways forward., Contemporary Security Policy, 39:4, 575-589. DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2018.1499695
- Paul Hopkin, Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and Implementing Effective Risk Management, 5th Edition, Kogan Page Publishers, 2018
- Philip Oltermann in The Guardian, At first I thought, this is crazy': the real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war, June 26, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jun/26/project-cassandra-plan-to-use-novels-to-predict-next-war
- Mario Puzo, The Godfather, Arrow Books, 1969